We compile the parts of the game that usually go unmentioned — head-to-head history, penalty-shootout records, strength-and-form models, goal-timing patterns, and the scheduling and altitude context behind results.
Anyone can pull possession and shots on target. We focus on the patterns that take real work to compile — and that actually carry signal.
Last ten meetings, last five in major tournaments, average goals per pairing and scoring trends — drawn from every international since 1872.
Penalty-shootout records broken down by tournament, the first-shooter advantage, and each side's share of goals scored from the spot.
Our own Elo ratings, opponent-adjusted form that strips out weak-schedule inflation, the gap between FIFA ranking and real form, and Elo-calibrated win/draw/win probabilities.
When teams score and concede — opening fifteen, late-game, stoppage time — plus all-time top scorers and how reliant a side is on one man.
Third game in nine days, days of rest, travel distance and timezone shifts between host cities, and altitude swings like Mexico City's 2,240m.
World Cup record and win rate, neutral-venue performance, current unbeaten runs, and how each nation's FIFA ranking has moved over time.
One fixture, four angles. This is the shape of every breakdown we post — the patterns laid out plainly, with the context that moved them. No verdict handed down; the read is yours to make.
The Netherlands sit at 2014.6 on our Elo, Japan at 1997.8 — a gap of just 17 points. The model, calibrated on 49,000 historical matches, leans Netherlands 39%, draw 28%, Japan 33%. FIFA has them 7th and 18th; on Elo they're 9th and 11th.
Three meetings, Netherlands ahead 2–1–0 at 2.67 goals per game. Japan have never beaten the Dutch — but their only major-tournament meeting, the 2010 World Cup group stage, was a 1–0 Dutch win decided by a single second-half goal.
The Netherlands average 2.09 scored and 1.22 conceded per game; Japan 1.83 and 1.15 — the slightly tighter defensive unit. Once opponent strength is priced in, the eleven-place FIFA gap between these sides all but disappears.
AT&T Stadium in Arlington is enclosed and climate-controlled — no altitude, no heat exposure, and no travel asymmetry worth flagging. Both sides open their group here fresh, with no fatigue or extra-time hangover in the system.
Every figure traces back to a public dataset — international results since 1872, the FIFA ranking, club data, and our own ratings built on top. Where the data is thin, we say so.
We publish patterns, history, and strength models — not tips or guarantees. The probabilities are context; the conclusions are yours.
The World Cup is where we start. The same approach extends to other competitions and other sports over time.
We're posting breakdowns through the tournament on Telegram. Free to follow while we build it out.
Open TelegramNo spam. A read per fixture, and nothing in between.